Decomposing the country-to-RTA ratios
August, 2024
Exploration of the country-to-RTA ratios for two opposed RTAs in terms of the climate exposure scores under SSP 5.85: the EU and MERCOSUR.
EU country-to-RTA ratios
The EU counts 27 current signatories. Here, I decompose the country-to-RTA ratios to understand the underlying dynamics happening for EU countries part of the RTA and the RTA aggregate resource trends. We constrain this exploration to SSP 5.85.
1. Gradual change
Gradual change is the average % difference over 2070-2099 compared to the historical reference period 1985-2015.
1.a. Resource trends
Resources included are total water runoff, fish exploitable biomass, and maize, soybean, rice, and wheat crop yields.
1.b. Pseudo-probabilities
Probabilities of gradual change occurrence across resources are the probabilities that at least 2 resources change beyond 25% (by a decrease or an increase) by the end of the century for all countries and the entire EU.
We repeat this analysis for increasing resources, and decreasing resources.
1.c. Probabilities
We calculate the probabilities of overall change, synchrony and compensation per country/RTA and per climate model for SSP 5.85, and compare the values of the countries compared to the RTA.
2. Shocks
Abrupt change is measured with the occurrence of resource shocks over 2070-2099.
2.a. Shock pseudo-probability time-series
Resources included are total water runoff, fish exploitable biomass, and maize, soybean, rice, and wheat crop yields.
2.b. Probabilities
We calculate the probabilities of overall change, synchrony, and compensation per country/RTA and per climate model for SSP 5.85, and compare the values of the countries compared to the RTA.
MERCOSUR country-to-RTA ratios
MERCOSUR counts 4 current signatories (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay).
1. Gradual change
1.a. Resource trends
1.b. Pseudo-probabilities
1.c. Probabilities
2. Shocks
2.a. Shock pseudo-probability time-series
2.b. Probabilities
